Elevated breast cancer incidence rates in urban areas have led to speculation regarding the potential role of air pollution. In order to inform the exposure assessment for a subsequent breast cancer study, we evaluated agreement between modeled and monitored hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). Modeled annual ambient concentrations of HAPs in California came from the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Air Toxics Assessment database for 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005 and corresponding monitored data from the California Air Resources Board's air quality monitoring program. We selected 12 compounds of interest for our study and focused on evaluating agreement between modeled and monitored data, and of temporal trends. Modeled data generally underestimated the monitored data, especially in 1996. For most compounds agreement between modeled and monitored concentrations improved over time. We concluded that 2002 and 2005 modeled data agree best with monitored data and are the most appropriate years for direct use in our subsequent epidemiologic analysis.

译文

城市地区乳腺癌发病率的上升导致人们对空气污染的潜在作用的猜测。为了为随后的乳腺癌研究提供暴露评估信息,我们评估了建模和监测的有害空气污染物 (HAPs) 之间的一致性。加利福尼亚州hap的模拟年度环境浓度来自美国环境保护署的1996,1999,2002和2005国家空气有毒物质评估数据库,以及来自加利福尼亚空气资源委员会空气质量监测计划的相应监测数据。我们选择了12种感兴趣的化合物进行研究,并着重于评估建模和监测数据之间的一致性以及时间趋势。建模数据通常低估了监控数据,尤其是1996年数据。对于大多数化合物,建模和监测浓度之间的一致性随着时间的推移而改善。我们得出的结论是,2002和2005建模数据与监测数据最吻合,并且是我们随后的流行病学分析中直接使用的最合适年份。

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