The cornerstone of population genetics is a probabilistic understanding of the ultimate fate--survival or extinction--of rare mutations. If a mutation is beneficial, it enables its carrier to reproduce faster than native wild-type individuals. In classic derivations and in the considerable body of research that has followed, "faster" has been defined mathematically to mean "able to produce more surviving offspring per generation." Many organisms, however, may increase their reproductive rate by producing the same number of offspring in a shorter generation time: a mutant bacterium, for example, may complete the cell cycle and produce two offspring more quickly than the wild type. We find that the ultimate fixation probability of a mutation conferring a shorter generation time differs from that of a mutation conferring more offspring by a factor of 2 ln(2)-nearly 40%. This predicts a reduction in the overall substitution rate for any mutation that decreases the generation time: fixation probability is biased toward increased offspring number.

译文

:人口遗传学的基石是对罕见突变的最终命运(生存或灭绝)的概率理解。如果突变是有益的,它使它的载体比天然野生型个体繁殖得更快。在经典派生和随后的大量研究中,“更快”在数学上被定义为“能够每代产生更多存活的后代”。但是,许多生物可以通过在较短的产生时间内产生相同数量的后代来提高其繁殖率:例如,突变细菌可以完成细胞周期并比野生型更快地产生两个后代。我们发现,赋予较短世代时间的突变的最终固定概率与赋予更多后代的突变的最终固定概率相差2 ln(2)-近40%。这预示着降低突变发生时间的任何突变的总体替代率将降低:固定概率偏向于增加后代数量。

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