INTRODUCTION:Managing the polio endgame requires access to sufficient quantities of poliovirus vaccines. After oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation, outbreaks may occur that require outbreak response using monovalent OPV (mOPV) and/or inactivated poliovirus vaccine. Areas covered: We review the experience and challenges with managing vaccine supplies in the context of the polio endgame. Building on models that explored polio endgame risks and the potential mOPV needs to stop outbreaks from live poliovirus reintroductions, we conceptually explore the potential demands for finished and bulk mOPV doses from a stockpile in the context of limited shelf-life of finished vaccine and time delays to convert bulk to finished vaccine. Our analysis suggests that the required size of the mOPV stockpile varies by serotype, with the highest expected needs for serotype 1 mOPV. Based on realizations of poliovirus risks after OPV cessation, the stockpile required to eliminate the chance of a stock-out appears considerably larger than the currently planned mOPV stockpiles. Expert commentary: The total required stockpile size depends on the acceptable probability of a stock-out, and increases with longer times to finish bulk doses and shorter shelf-lives of finished doses. Successful polio endgame management will require careful attention to poliovirus vaccine supplies.

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简介:管理小儿麻痹症终末期需要获得足够数量的小儿麻痹症病毒疫苗。口服脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗(OPV)停止后,可能发生暴发,需要使用单价OPV(mOPV)和/或灭活的脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗应对暴发。涵盖的领域:我们回顾了在小儿麻痹症残局背景下管理疫苗供应的经验和挑战。基于探索脊髓灰质炎终末期风险和潜在mOPV需阻止活脊灰病毒再引入爆发的模型的模型,我们从概念上探讨了在成品疫苗保质期有限和时间延迟的情况下,库存对成品和批量mOPV剂量的潜在需求将散装疫苗转变为成品疫苗。我们的分析表明,所需的mOPV贮藏量因血清型而异,血清型1 mOPV的预期需求最高。基于OPV停止后脊髓灰质炎病毒风险的认识,消除当前缺货机会所需的库存似乎比当前计划的mOPV库存要大得多。专家评论:总所需储备量取决于可接受的缺货概率,并且随着完成批量剂量的时间增加和完成剂量的货架期缩短而增加。成功的脊髓灰质炎终末管理将需要特别注意脊髓灰质炎疫苗的供应。

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