More and more countries are showing a significant slowdown in the number of new COVID-19 infections due to effective governmentally instituted lockdown and social distancing measures. We have analyzed the growth behavior of the top 25 most affected countries by means of a local slope analysis and found three distinct patterns that individual countries follow depending on the strictness of the lockdown protocols: rise and fall, power law, or logistic. For countries showing power law growth we have determined the scaling exponents. For countries that showed a strong slowdown in the rate of infections we have extrapolated the expected saturation of the total number of infections and the expected final date. Three different extrapolation methods (logistic, parabolic, and cutoff power law) were used. All methods agree on the order of magnitude of saturation and end dates. Global infection rates are analyzed with the same methods. The relevance and accuracy of these extrapolations is discussed.

译文

由于政府制定的有效封锁和社会疏远措施,越来越多的国家显示出新新型冠状病毒肺炎感染人数显著放缓。我们通过局部斜率分析分析了受影响最严重的前25个国家的增长行为,并根据锁定协议的严格性发现了各个国家遵循的三种不同模式: 兴衰,幂律或逻辑。对于显示幂律增长的国家,我们已经确定了比例指数。对于感染率大幅放缓的国家,我们推断了感染总数的预期饱和度和预期的最终日期。使用了三种不同的外推方法 (逻辑,抛物线和截止幂定律)。所有方法都在饱和度和结束日期的数量级上达成一致。用相同的方法分析全球感染率。讨论了这些外推的相关性和准确性。

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