Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle that is difficult to control and eradicate in part due to the costly nature of surveillance and poor sensitivity of diagnostic tests. Like many countries, bTB prevalence in Uruguay has gradually declined to low levels due to intensive surveillance and control efforts over the past decades. In low prevalence settings, broad-based surveillance strategies based on routine testing may not be the most cost-effective way for controlling between-farm bTB transmission, while targeted surveillance aimed at high-risk farms may be more efficient for this purpose. To investigate the efficacy of targeted surveillance, we developed an integrated within- and between-farm bTB transmission model utilizing data from Uruguay's comprehensive animal movement database. A genetic algorithm was used to fit uncertain parameter values, such as the animal-level sensitivity of skin testing and slaughter inspection, to observed bTB epidemiological data. Of ten alternative surveillance strategies evaluated, a strategy based on eliminating testing in low-risk farms resulted in a 40% reduction in sampling effort without increasing bTB incidence. These results can inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance programs to detect and control bTB in Uruguay and other countries with low bTB prevalence.

译文

牛结核病 (bTB) 是一种牛的慢性疾病,由于监测的成本高昂和诊断测试的敏感性差,很难控制和根除。与许多国家一样,由于过去几十年来的密集监测和控制工作,乌拉圭的bTB患病率逐渐下降到较低水平。在低流行率的环境中,基于常规测试的基础广泛的监测策略可能不是控制农场间bTB传播的最具成本效益的方法,而针对高风险农场的针对性监测可能为此目的更有效。为了研究目标监测的有效性,我们利用乌拉圭综合动物运动数据库中的数据开发了一个集成的农场内和农场间bTB传播模型。使用遗传算法将不确定的参数值 (例如皮肤测试和屠宰检查的动物级敏感性) 拟合到观察到的bTB流行病学数据。在评估的十种替代监测策略中,基于消除低风险农场测试的策略导致采样工作量40% 减少,而不会增加bTB发生率。这些结果可以为设计更具成本效益的监测计划提供信息,以检测和控制乌拉圭和其他bTB患病率较低的国家的bTB。

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