Increasingly, decision analytic models are used within economic evaluations of health technologies (e.g., pharmaceuticals) submitted to national reimbursement bodies in countries like Australia and UK, where such models play a fundamental role in informing public funding decisions. Concerns regarding the accuracy of model outputs and hence the credibility of national reimbursement decisions are frequently raised. We propose a framework for developing reference models for specific diseases to inform economic evaluations of health technologies and their appraisal. The structure of a reference model reflects the natural history of the condition under study and defines the clinical events to be represented, the relationships between the events, and the effect of patient characteristics on the probability and timing of events. We contend that the use of reference models will improve the accuracy and comparability of public funding decisions. This can lead to the more efficient allocation of public funds.

译文

决策分析模型越来越多地用于向澳大利亚和英国等国家的国家报销机构提交的卫生技术 (例如药品) 的经济评估中,这些模型在为公共资金决策提供信息方面发挥着重要作用。人们经常担心示范产出的准确性,从而担心国家偿还决定的可信度。我们提出了一个框架,用于开发特定疾病的参考模型,以告知卫生技术及其评估的经济评估。参考模型的结构反映了所研究疾病的自然历史,并定义了要表示的临床事件,事件之间的关系以及患者特征对事件发生的概率和时间的影响。我们认为,使用参考模型将提高公共资金决策的准确性和可比性。这可以提高公共资金的配置效率。

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