BACKGROUND:Hierarchical modelling represents a statistical method used to analyze nested data, as those concerning patients afferent to different hospitals. Aim of this paper is to build a hierarchical regression model using data from the "Italian CABG outcome study" in order to evaluate the amount of differences in adjusted mortality rates attributable to differences between centres. METHODS:The study population consists of all adult patients undergoing an isolated CABG between 2002-2004 in the 64 participating cardiac surgery centres.A risk adjustment model was developed using a classical single-level regression. In the multilevel approach, the variable "clinical-centre" was employed as a group-level identifier. The intraclass correlation coefficient was used to estimate the proportion of variability in mortality between groups. Group-level residuals were adopted to evaluate the effect of clinical centre on mortality and to compare hospitals performance. Spearman correlation coefficient of ranks (rho) was used to compare results from classical and hierarchical model. RESULTS:The study population was made of 34,310 subjects (mortality rate = 2.61%; range 0.33-7.63). The multilevel model estimated that 10.1% of total variability in mortality was explained by differences between centres. The analysis of group-level residuals highlighted 3 centres (VS 8 in the classical methodology) with estimated mortality rates lower than the mean and 11 centres (VS 7) with rates significantly higher. Results from the two methodologies were comparable (rho = 0.99). CONCLUSION:Despite known individual risk-factors were accounted for in the single-level model, the high variability explained by the variable "clinical-centre" states its importance in predicting 30-day mortality after CABG.

译文

背景:分层建模代表了一种统计方法,用于分析嵌套数据,例如那些涉及到不同医院的患者的数据。本文的目的是使用“意大利CABG结果研究”中的数据构建层次回归模型,以评估归因于中心之间差异的调整后死亡率的差异量。
方法:研究人群包括2002年至2004年间在64个参与的心脏外科手术中心接受隔离CABG的所有成年患者,并使用经典的单水平回归建立了风险调整模型。在多级方法中,变量“临床中心”被用作组级标识符。组内相关系数用于估计各组之间死亡率差异的比例。采用组水平残差来评估临床中心对死亡率的影响并比较医院的绩效。使用Spearman等级相关系数(rho)来比较经典模型和分层模型的结果。
结果:研究人群为34,310名受试者(死亡率为2.61%;范围为0.33-7.63)。多级模型估计,死亡率的总变异性的10.1%由中心之间的差异解释。对组水平残差的分析突出显示了3个中心(经典方法中为VS 8),其估计死亡率低于平均水平;而11个中心(VS 7),其死亡率显着高于平均水平。两种方法的结果可比(rho = 0.99)。
结论:尽管在单级模型中考虑了已知的个体危险因素,但变量“临床中心”解释的高变异性说明了其在预测CABG后30天死亡率中的重要性。

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