BACKGROUND & AIMS: :A number of competing risks and benefits influence the rates of neonatal morbidity and mortality in elective cesarean delivery versus expectant management. To compare these rates, we developed complex decision trees to model the expected outcomes among hypothetical cohorts of 1,000,000 uncomplicated pregnancies undergoing elective cesarean delivery versus 1,000,000 comparable pregnancies undergoing routine pregnancy management. A separate tree was created for each complication, including neonatal death, respiratory morbidity, intracranial hemorrhage, and brachial plexus injury. We found that neonatal mortality was increased among elective cesarean deliveries, but perinatal mortality was higher with routine expectant management due to fetal deaths. Respiratory morbidity was substantially more common among infants delivered by elective cesarean delivery, whereas intracranial hemorrhage and brachial plexus injury were less common. We conclude that the fetal/neonatal impact of elective cesarean is mixed, but any improvement in perinatal health is likely to be small.

背景与目标： : 在选择性剖宫产与预期管理中，许多竞争性风险和收益会影响新生儿的发病率和死亡率。为了比较这些比率，我们开发了复杂的决策树来模拟假设队列中的预期结果，这些队列中的1,000,000例非复杂妊娠接受选择性剖宫产，而1,000,000例可比妊娠接受常规妊娠管理。为每种并发症 (包括新生儿死亡，呼吸系统疾病，颅内出血和臂丛神经损伤) 创建了单独的树。我们发现，选择性剖宫产分娩的新生儿死亡率增加，但由于胎儿死亡，常规预期治疗的围产期死亡率更高。在择期剖宫产分娩的婴儿中，呼吸系统的发病率明显更高，而颅内出血和臂丛神经损伤则较少见。我们得出的结论是，选择性剖宫产对胎儿/新生儿的影响是混合的，但是围产期健康的任何改善都可能很小。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: :A survey of pediatric otolaryngologists about voice disorders in children suggests that approximately 1% of children examined were noted to have voice problems, and in only one fifth of these children (0.2%) were the voice problems related to professional use of the voice, such as singing. Direct flexible laryngoscopy was the sole method of examination for 80% of the children examined by these pediatric specialists. Voice therapy for 6 months was generally recommended (88%). The survey represents an estimated clinical experience of > 160,000 children per year, and it achieved a response rate of 40% of pediatric otolaryngologists (48/120). Results suggest that the use of video and stroboscopy for examination of the pediatric voice would enhance understanding and assure correct diagnosis and treatment.

背景与目标： : 对儿童耳鼻喉科医生进行的一项关于儿童语音障碍的调查表明，大约1% 的被检查儿童有语音问题，其中只有5分之1儿童 (0.2%) 的语音问题与专业使用语音有关，例如唱歌。直接柔性喉镜检查是由这些儿科专家检查的80% 儿童的唯一检查方法。通常建议语音治疗6个月 (88%)。该调查代表了每年> 160,000名儿童的估计临床经验，并且达到了小儿耳鼻喉科医生的40% (48/120)。结果表明，使用视频和频闪镜检查小儿语音将增强理解并确保正确的诊断和治疗。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The relationship between preferred objects associated with stereotypy, stereotypic behavior, and accuracy of responding during a counting task by a child with autism was analyzed. Object preference was determined by presenting the child with different sets of objects and asking him to choose one. His choices were then rank ordered into three groupslow, medium, and high preference objects. Counting performance within each of the three object groups was then analyzed in a multi-element design, alternating preference groups. Teaching with high-preference objects occasioned more stereotypic behavior and less accurate counting than teaching with medium- and low-preference objects. Thus, there exists the possibility that teaching may be less successful with certain teaching materials, especially if those materials evoke high rates of incompatible behaviors.

背景与目标： 分析了与自闭症儿童在计数任务中与刻板印象相关的首选对象，刻板行为和响应准确性之间的关系。对象偏好是通过向孩子展示不同的对象集并要求他选择一个来确定的。然后将他的选择排序为三个慢，中和高偏好对象。然后，在多元素设计 (交替的偏好组) 中分析了三个对象组中每个对象组的计数性能。与中低偏好对象的教学相比，高偏好对象的教学产生了更多的刻板行为和更不准确的计数。因此，存在使用某些教材进行教学可能不太成功的可能性，尤其是如果这些教材引起高度的不相容行为。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: :Immunocompromise after a major injury is presumed to be a predisposing factor for sepsis. Mice subjected to sublethal cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) and challenged 5 days later with Pseudomonas aeruginosa had more bacterial growth in lung tissue, lower serum interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) and interleukin (IL) 12,and higher serum IL-10 when compared with sham CLP mice challenged with Pseudomonas. To test the functional significance of these alterations in cytokine production in the immune response to bacteria, we administered IFN-gamma and anti-IL-10 to post-CLP mice before the Pseudomonas challenge. Administration of IFN-gamma and anti-IL-10 did not improve bacterial clearance or mortality in post-CLP mice. In further studies, we administered IFN-gamma to IL-10 knockout mice before a challenge with P. aeruginosa. Our results showed no significant differences in bacterial clearance or mortality in IL-10 knockout mice with or without IFN-gamma treatment compared with wild-type controls. Finally, because most mortality occurred within 2 to 3 days of the Pseudomonas challenge in the aforementioned studies and was likely associated with a marked proinflammatory response, we investigated the effect of IFN-gamma and anti-IL-10 on clearance of Pseudomonas in C3H/HeJ mice, which do not mount an exaggerated proinflammatory response to endotoxin or Gram-negative bacteria. Neither clearance of the Pseudomonas bacteria nor mortality was improved in C3H/HeJ mice receiving anti-IL-10 and IFN-gamma. These results suggest that the suppressed IFN-gamma and IL-12 responses, in combination with an exaggerated IL-10 response to P. aeruginosa challenge after injury, do not correlate with bacterial clearance or survival.

背景与目标： : 重大损伤后的免疫损害被认为是败血症的诱发因素。与假单胞菌相比，接受亚致死性盲肠结扎和穿刺 (CLP) 并在5天后用铜绿假单胞菌攻击的小鼠肺组织中细菌生长更多，血清干扰素 γ (IFN-γ) 和白介素 (IL) 12降低，血清IL-10更高。为了测试这些细胞因子产生变化在对细菌的免疫反应中的功能意义，我们在假单胞菌攻击之前对CLP后小鼠施用IFN-γ 和anti-IL-10。施用IFN-γ 和anti-IL-10不会改善CLP后小鼠的细菌清除率或死亡率。在进一步的研究中，我们在用铜绿假单胞菌攻击之前对IL-10基因敲除小鼠施用IFN-γ。我们的结果表明，与野生型对照相比，有或没有IFN-γ 处理的IL-10基因敲除小鼠的细菌清除率或死亡率没有显着差异。最后，由于大多数死亡率发生在上述研究中假单胞菌攻击的2至3天内，并且可能与明显的促炎反应有关，因此我们研究了IFN-γ 和anti-IL-10对C3H/HeJ小鼠中假单胞菌清除的影响，它们不会对内毒素或革兰氏阴性细菌产生夸张的促炎反应。在接受anti-IL-10和IFN-γ 的C3H/HeJ小鼠中，假单胞菌的清除率和死亡率均未改善。这些结果表明，受抑制的IFN-γ 和IL-12反应，再加上损伤后对铜绿假单胞菌攻击的过度IL-10反应，与细菌清除或存活无关。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: INTRODUCTION:the potential health impacts due to the decommissioned Nuclear power plants (NPP) located in Borgo Sabotino and Garigliano in Central Italy (active from the early 1960s to the late 1980s) have raised several concerns. Brain, thyroid, breast and lung cancer and leukaemia have been associated with exposure to ionizing radiations, but the health effects of nuclear plants on the resident populations are controversial. OBJECTIVE:to evaluate whether living close to NPPs is associated with an increased risk of cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS:we defined a cohort of residents within 7 km from the NPPs during the period 1996-2002. Individual follow-up for vital status at 01.01.2007 was conducted using municipality data. Gender specific Standardized Incidence and Mortality Ratios, adjusted for age, were calculated (SIR and SMR) using the regional population as reference. Each participant's address was assigned to a distance from the NPP on the basis of a GIS. A relative risk (RR, CI95%), adjusted for age and socioeconomic status, was calculated in 3 bands of increasing radius from the plants: 0-2, 2-4, and 4-7 km (reference group), using a Poisson regression model. RESULTS:the cohort was of 39,775 people, 32%of whom lived near (0-4 km) the NPP. No differences in mortality was found when comparing the cohort with the regional population; among women living within 7 km from the NPP, we found thyroid cancer incidence higher than expected (SIR 1.53 CI95% 1.18-1.95). However, when the analysis was conducted on the basis of the distance from the NPP, we found a statistically significant increase in male mortality only for causes unrelated to radiation exposure (all causes, stomach cancer, and cardiovascular diseases). No mortality excess was observed among women living close to the NPPs. No statistically significant distance-related gradient was observed for cancer incidence both in men and women. CONCLUSIONS:living close to the NPP was not associated with mortality for causes related to radiation exposure. However, the results suggest to continue the epidemiological surveillance of the population.

背景与目标：

BACKGROUND & AIMS: BACKGROUND:The Nutrition Embedded Evaluation Programme Impact Evaluation (NEEP-IE) study is a cluster randomised controlled trial designed to evaluate the impact of a childcare centre-based integrated nutritional and agricultural intervention on the diets, nutrition and development of young children in Malawi. The intervention includes activities to improve nutritious food production and training/behaviour-change communication to improve food intake, care and hygiene practices. This paper presents the rationale and study design for this randomised control trial. METHODS:Sixty community-based childcare centres (CBCCs) in rural communities around Zomba district, Malawi, were randomised to either (1) a control group where children were attending CBCCs supported by Save the Children's Early Childhood Health and Development (ECD) programme, or (2) an intervention group where nutritional and agricultural support activities were provided alongside the routine provision of the Save the Children's ECD programme. Primary outcomes at child level include dietary intake (measured through 24-h recall), whilst secondary outcomes include child development (Malawi Development Assessment Tool (MDAT)) and nutritional status (anthropometric measurements). At household level, primary outcomes include smallholder farmer production output and crop-mix (recall of last production season). Intermediate outcomes along theorised agricultural and nutritional pathways were measured. During this trial, we will follow a mixed-methods approach and undertake child-, household-, CBCC- and market-level surveys and assessments as well as in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with project stakeholders. DISCUSSION:Assessing the simultaneous impact of preschool meals on diets, nutrition, child development and agriculture is a complex undertaking. This study is the first to explicitly examine, from a food systems perspective, the impact of a preschool meals programme on dietary choices, alongside outcomes in the nutritional, child development and agricultural domains. The findings of this evaluation will provide evidence to support policymakers in the scale-up of national programmes. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN96497560 . Registered on 21 September 2016.

背景与目标：

BACKGROUND & AIMS: OBJECTIVE:To examine the analytic role of arsenic exposure on cancer mortality among the low-dose (well water arsenic level <150 μg/L) villages in the Blackfoot-disease (BFD) endemic area of southwest Taiwan and with respect to the southwest regional data. METHOD:Poisson analyses of the bladder and lung cancer deaths with respect to arsenic exposure (μg/kg/day) for the low-dose (<150 μg/L) villages with exposure defined by the village median, mean, or maximum and with or without regional data. RESULTS:Use of the village median well water arsenic level as the exposure metric introduced misclassification bias by including villages with levels >500 μg/L, but use of the village mean or the maximum did not. Poisson analyses using mean or maximum arsenic levels showed significant negative cancer slope factors for models of bladder cancers and of bladder and lung cancers combined. Inclusion of the southwest Taiwan regional data did not change the findings when the model contained an explanatory variable for non-arsenic differences. A positive slope could only be generated by including the comparison population as a separate data point with the assumption of zero arsenic exposure from drinking water and eliminating the variable for non-arsenic risk factors. CONCLUSION:The cancer rates are higher among the low-dose (<150 μg/L) villages in the BFD area than in the southwest Taiwan region. However, among the low-dose villages in the BFD area, cancer risks suggest a negative association with well water arsenic levels. Positive differences from regional data seem attributable to non-arsenic ecological factors.

背景与目标：

BACKGROUND & AIMS: BACKGROUND:The complement system is an important mediator of inflammation, which plays a pivotal role in atherosclerosis and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Animal studies suggest that activation of the complement cascade resulting in the formation of soluble membrane attack complex (sMAC), contributes to both atherosclerosis and plaque rupture and may be the direct cause of tissue damage related to ischemia/reperfusion injury. However clinical data of sMAC during an AMI is sparse. Accordingly the aim was to investigate the prognostic role of sMAC in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS:We included 725 STEMI-patients admitted to a single, high-volume invasive heart centre, treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), from September 2006 to December 2008. Blood samples were drawn immediately before PCI. Plasma sMAC was measured using an in-house immunoassay. Endpoints were all-cause mortality (n = 62) and the combined endpoint (n = 122) of major cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as cardiovascular mortality and admission due recurrent AMI or heart failure. Follow-up time was 12 months. RESULTS:During 12 months of follow-up 62 patients died from all causes and 122 patients reached the combined end-point of MACE. Patients with high sMAC (>75th percentile) had increased risk of both all-cause mortality and MACE. Even after adjustment for confounding risk factors by Cox-regression analyses, high levels of sMAC remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.81 [95% CI 1.06-3.06; P = .029]) and MACE (hazard ratio 1.70 [95% CI 1.16-2.48; P = .006]). CONCLUSIONS:High plasma sMAC independently predicts all-cause mortality and MACE in STEMI-patients treated with PCI.

背景与目标：

BACKGROUND & AIMS: INTRODUCTION:The aim of this study was to assess population-based changes in incidence, treatment, and in short- and long-term survival of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) over 23 years. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Analysis of all patients in Iceland who fulfilled the consensus criteria for ARDS in 1988-2010. Demographic variables, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores and ventilation parameters were collected from hospital charts. RESULTS:The age-standardised incidence of ARDS during the study period was 7.2 cases per 100,000 person-years and was increased by 0.2 cases per year (P < 0.001). The most common causes of ARDS were pneumonia (29%) and sepsis (29%). The use of pressure-controlled ventilation became almost dominant from 1993. The peak inspiratory pressure (PIP) has significantly decreased (-0.5 cmH(2) O/year), but the peak end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) has increased (0.1 cmH(2) O/year) during the study period. The hospital mortality decreased by 1% per year (P = 0.03) during the study period, from 50% in 1988-1992 to 33% in 2006-2010. A multivariable logistic regression model revealed that higher age and APACHE II score increased the odds of hospital mortality, while a higher calendar year of diagnosis reduced the odds of mortality. This was unchanged when dominant respiratory treatment, PIP and PEEP were added to the model. The 10-year survival of ARDS survivors was 68% compared with 90% survival of a reference population (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION:The incidence of ARDS has almost doubled, but hospital mortality has decreased during the 23 years of observation. The 10-year survival of ARDS survivors is poor compared with the reference population.

背景与目标：

BACKGROUND & AIMS: :Fetal growth, birth weight specific mortality rates and effect of sick leave or hospitalization on the fetal growth were investigated in a material of 476 twin pregnancies managed at University Central Hospital of Turku in years 1970-81. Birth weights of twin babies at any gestational age were slightly but not significantly higher than in earlier materials. When compared to growth curve of singleton fetuses, the growth rate of both twins is equal to singletons up to 30th week of pregnancy, being thereafter slower than in singleton pregnancies. Although duration of sick leave and hospitalization increased considerably during the study period, no change in the duration of pregnancy nor in the weight of twin babies occurred. Instead perinatal mortality decreased from 101/per thousand to 36.2/per thousand. Birth weight specific mortality rates did not differ from those in singleton fetuses.

背景与目标： : 在图尔库大学中央医院1970-81年管理的476例双胎妊娠材料中，研究了胎儿生长，出生体重特定死亡率以及病假或住院对胎儿生长的影响。在任何胎龄的双胞胎婴儿的出生体重均略高于但不显着高于早期材料。与单胎胎儿的生长曲线相比，两个双胞胎的生长速度等于怀孕第30周的单胎，此后比单胎妊娠慢。尽管在研究期间病假和住院时间大大增加，但怀孕时间和双胞胎婴儿的体重没有变化。相反，围产期死亡率从101/每千下降到36.2/每千。出生体重特定死亡率与单胎胎儿没有差异。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: :Pulmonary artery sling is an incomplete vascular ring, the result of the left pulmonary artery arising from the right pulmonary artery and effectively constricting the airway, and it usually presents within the first weeks to months of life. We report a surgical correction of tracheal stenosis for a two-year-old patient associated with pulmonary artery sling and tracheal broncus.

背景与目标： 肺动脉吊带是一种不完整的血管环，是左肺动脉从右肺动脉产生并有效收缩气道的结果，通常在生命的最初几周到几个月内出现。我们报告了一名两岁的肺动脉吊带和气管支气管相关患者的气管狭窄手术矫正。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: :Recent evidence suggests that between-individual variation in posture and posture transitions may have important health consequences in adults. The early life development of between-individual variation in posture and posture transitions has not been studied, and the physiological consequences of such variations in childhood are unknown, largely because of the absence of objective methods for measuring posture and posture transitions in young children. This study aimed to examine the objective measurement of posture transitions in pre-school children with the activPAL™ monitor (PAL Technologies, Glasgow). Single-unit activity monitors such as the activPAL™ have a limited output, with data categorized as 'sit/lie', 'stand' or 'walk' and the consequences of this for measurement of posture transitions in young children are unknown. Thirty children (mean age 4.1 years) were videoed for 1 h in nursery while wearing an activPAL™. Video was analysed on a second-by-second basis, with all postures categorized. From direct observation, time spent was sit/lie 46%; stand 35%; walk/run 16%; 3% was spent in heterogeneous non-sit/lie/upright postures (crawl, crouch, and kneel up). Despite these 'non-standard' postures being responsible for a low proportion of time, posture transitions involving them contributed to 34% of total transitions. There was a significant rank-order correlation (r = 0.79, p < 0.0001) between the number of posture transitions measured by activPAL™ and by direct observation. 'Non-standard' postures in young children are probably not a problem if the aim is to measure total time sedentary or active, and the activPAL™ may measure between-individual variation in transitions adequately in young children. However, non-standard postures may present problems for the detailed characterization of posture transitions in early childhood.

背景与目标： : 最近的证据表明，姿势和姿势转换的个体间差异可能对成年人的健康产生重要影响。尚未研究姿势和姿势转换的个体间变化的早期生活发展，并且这种变化在儿童时期的生理后果尚不清楚，这主要是因为缺乏客观的方法来测量幼儿的姿势和姿势转换。这项研究旨在检查activPAL学龄前儿童姿势转变的客观测量™监视器 (格拉斯哥PAL Technologies)。单单元活动监视器，如activPAL™输出有限，数据分类为 “坐/坐”，“站立” 或 “步行”，其对测量幼儿姿势转变的后果尚不清楚。30名儿童 (平均年龄4.1岁) 在托儿所观看了1小时的视频，同时穿着activPAL™。对视频进行了逐秒分析，并对所有姿势进行了分类。从直接观察来看，花费的时间是坐/躺46%; 站立35%; 步行/跑步16%; 3% 是在异质的非坐/躺/直立姿势 (爬行，蹲下和跪下) 中度过的。尽管这些 “非标准” 姿势负责低比例的时间，但涉及它们的姿势转变有助于34% 总转变。activPAL测量的姿势转换次数之间存在显着的顺序相关性 (r = 0.79，p <0.0001)™通过直接观察。如果目的是测量久坐或活动的总时间，那么幼儿的 “非标准” 姿势可能不是问题，而activPAL™可以充分衡量幼儿过渡中的个体间差异。但是，非标准姿势可能会为儿童早期姿势转变的详细表征带来问题。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: AIMS:We sought to evaluate bleeding complications and periprocedural outcomes of the radial approach (RA) as compared to the femoral approach (FA) during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in "real-world" patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS AND RESULTS:The study group consisted of 22,812 consecutive patients with STEMI treated with PCI and stent implantation between January 2014 and June 2015 in 151 tertiary invasive cardiology centres in Poland (the ORPKI Polish National Registry). Patients treated using the RA and FA were compared using a propensity score analysis to avoid possible selection bias. The analysis was carried out in an "as-treated" manner. The FA was used in 9,334 (40.9%) and the RA in 13,478 (59.1%) patients. After propensity score matching, a higher total amount of contrast (191.8±8.0 vs. 174.8±68.8 ml; p=0.001) and lower radiation doses (1,279.5±1,346.3 vs. 1,182.6±887 mGy; p=0.02) were reported in FA. More access-site-related bleeding complications after both angiography (0.17% vs. 0.02%; p=0.004) and PCI (0.23% vs. 0.09%; p=0.049) were reported in the FA group. Periprocedural death (1.94% vs. 0.93%; p=0.001) was more common after PCI performed with the FA. CONCLUSIONS:The radial approach was associated with a lower incidence of periprocedural death in STEMI patients as well as a significant reduction of bleeding complications at the access site.

背景与目标：

BACKGROUND & AIMS: :Chondrolipoma is an extremely rare variant of lipoma with cartilaginous metaplasia. The presence of nonlipomatous components can lead to a variety of entities in the differential diagnosis from the radiologic findings. We describe an unusual case of a chondrolipoma occurring in the right ankle of a 9-year-old female. Physical examination showed a 3.5-cm, elastic-hard, poorly mobile, nontender mass adherent to the Achilles tendon. Plain radiographs revealed a faintly calcified soft tissue mass without bone involvement. Magnetic resonance imaging showed a well-defined mass with 2 components with heterogeneous signal intensity, suggesting the coexistence of a fatty area and another nonlipomatous component. Marginal excision of the tumor was performed. Histologically, the tumor was composed of mature adipose tissue studded with islands of mature hyaline cartilage. Based on these findings, the tumor was diagnosed as a chondrolipoma. The patient had no evidence of local recurrence within 9 months of follow-up. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first case of chondrolipoma originating from the ankle in a child.

背景与目标： : 软骨脂肪瘤是脂肪瘤的一种极其罕见的变异型软骨化生。非脂肪瘤性成分的存在可导致放射学发现的鉴别诊断疾病中的各种实体。我们描述了一个9岁女性右脚踝发生软骨脂肪瘤的不寻常病例。体格检查显示跟腱附着有3.5厘米，弹性坚硬，移动不良，不柔软的肿块。X线平片显示微弱的钙化软组织肿块，没有骨受累。磁共振成像显示出一个明确的质量，其中有2个成分，信号强度不均匀，表明脂肪区域和另一种非脂肪瘤成分并存。进行了肿瘤的边缘切除术。从组织学上讲，肿瘤由成熟的脂肪组织组成，这些脂肪组织散布着成熟的透明软骨岛。根据这些发现，该肿瘤被诊断为软骨脂肪瘤。在随访的9个月内，患者没有局部复发的证据。据我们所知，这是第一例起源于儿童脚踝的软骨脂肪瘤。

BACKGROUND & AIMS: :Obesity affects multiple points along the breast cancer control continuum from prevention to screening and treatment, often in opposing directions. Obesity is also more prevalent in Blacks than Whites at most ages so it might contribute to observed racial disparities in mortality. We use two established simulation models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) to evaluate the impact of obesity on race-specific breast cancer outcomes. The models use common national data to inform parameters for the multiple US birth cohorts of Black and White women, including age- and race-specific incidence, competing mortality, mammography characteristics, and treatment effectiveness. Parameters are modified by obesity (BMI of ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) in conjunction with its age-, race-, cohort- and time-period-specific prevalence. We measure age-standardized breast cancer incidence and mortality and cases and deaths attributable to obesity. Obesity is more prevalent among Blacks than Whites until age 74; after age 74 it is more prevalent in Whites. The models estimate that the fraction of the US breast cancer cases attributable to obesity is 3.9-4.5 % (range across models) for Whites and 2.5-3.6 % for Blacks. Given the protective effects of obesity on risk among women <50 years, elimination of obesity in this age group could increase cases for both the races, but decrease cases for women ≥ 50 years. Overall, obesity accounts for 4.4-9.2 % and 3.1-8.4 % of the total number of breast cancer deaths in Whites and Blacks, respectively, across models. However, variations in obesity prevalence have no net effect on race disparities in breast cancer mortality because of the opposing effects of age on risk and patterns of age- and race-specific prevalence. Despite its modest impact on breast cancer control and race disparities, obesity remains one of the few known modifiable risks for cancer and other diseases, underlining its relevance as a public health target.

背景与目标： : 肥胖会影响从预防到筛查和治疗的乳腺癌控制连续体的多个点，通常方向相反。在大多数年龄段，肥胖在黑人中也比白人更普遍，因此可能会导致观察到的种族死亡率差异。我们使用癌症干预和监测建模网络 (CISNET) 建立的两个模拟模型来评估肥胖对种族特异性乳腺癌结局的影响。这些模型使用通用的国家数据来告知美国多个黑人和白人女性出生队列的参数，包括特定于年龄和种族的发病率，竞争性死亡率，乳房x线摄影特征和治疗效果。通过肥胖 (BMI ≥ 30千克/m(2)) 及其年龄，种族，队列和时间段特异性患病率来修改参数。我们测量了年龄标准化的乳腺癌发病率和死亡率以及肥胖导致的病例和死亡。直到74岁，肥胖在黑人中比白人更普遍; 74岁以后，在白人中更普遍。这些模型估计，美国乳腺癌病例中肥胖的比例在白人中是3.9-4.5% (模型范围)，在黑人中是2.5-3.6%。鉴于肥胖对 <50岁女性风险的保护作用，消除该年龄组的肥胖可以增加两个种族的病例，但减少 ≥ 50岁女性的病例。总体而言，肥胖分别占白人和黑人乳腺癌死亡总数的4.4-9.2% 和3.1-8.4%。然而，肥胖患病率的变化对乳腺癌死亡率的种族差异没有净影响，因为年龄对风险以及年龄和种族特定患病率的模式有相反的影响。尽管肥胖对乳腺癌控制和种族差异的影响不大，但它仍然是癌症和其他疾病的少数已知可改变的风险之一，突显了其作为公共卫生目标的相关性。