Persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs) have been suggested to have negative effects on a number of hormonal systems. Several studies performed retrospectively have reported a possible association between POP exposure and fertility, measured as time to pregnancy (TTP). However, these studies lack biomarkers of exposure at the time when the women tried to conceive. It has previously been found that past female serum concentrations of 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (CB-153) can be estimated using a complex decay model, assuming that the biological half-life is 5 years, the yearly environmental reduction of the compound has been 3% since 1976, and the reduction of body burden due to lactation is 20% for periods up to 6 months and 30% for periods exceeding 6 months. In the present study, it is established that the model is valid also for estimations of past male serum concentrations of CB-153. Furthermore, the complex decay model was found to be useful also for estimating past serum concentrations of 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl)-ethylene (p,p'-DDE), assuming that the biological half-life of the compound is 8 years, the yearly reduction between 1971 and 1981 was 20% and after that 9%, and the reduction of body burden due to lactation is the same as that for CB-153. However, even though the estimated past serum concentrations of CB-153 and p,p'-DDE were found to be better proxy measures of actual past concentrations than current serum concentrations, there was little change in the rank order of the population investigated. Thus, the effect estimate for TTP was similar for both proxy measures when using categorized measures of exposure.

译文

:持久性有机氯污染物(POPs)已被建议对许多激素系统具有负面影响。回顾性进行的几项研究报告了POP暴露与生育能力之间的可能关联,以怀孕时间(TTP)衡量。但是,这些研究在妇女试图受孕时缺乏暴露的生物标志物。以前已经发现,假设生物学半衰期为5,可以使用复杂的衰变模型估算过去女性2,2',4,4',5,5'-六氯联苯(CB-153)的血清浓度。自1976年以来,该化合物的年度环境减少量为3%,并且由于哺乳而导致的身体负担在6个月以内减少了20%,在6个月以内减少了30%。在本研究中,已确定该模型对于过去男性CB-153血清浓度的估计也是有效的。此外,假设生物学半衰期为零,发现复杂的衰变模型也可用于估算1,1-二氯-2,2-双(对氯苯基)-乙烯(p,p'-DDE)的过去血清浓度。 -化合物的寿命为8年,1971年至1981年之间的年减少量为20%,此后为9%,并且由于泌乳导致的身体负担减少与CB-153相同。但是,尽管发现估计的过去CB-153和p,p'-DDE过去的血清浓度比当前的过去血清浓度更好地替代了过去的实际浓度,但所调查人群的排名几乎没有变化。因此,当使用分类的暴露量度时,两种替代量度的TTP效果估计都相似。

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