OBJECTIVE:To investigate the potential impacts of several tobacco control interventions on adult daily smoking prevalence in the Australian state of Queensland, using a system dynamics model codeveloped with local and national stakeholders.

METHODS:Eight intervention scenarios were simulated and compared with a reference scenario (business as usual), in which all tobacco control measures currently in place are maintained unchanged until the end of the simulation period (31 December 2037).

FINDINGS:Under the business as usual scenario, adult daily smoking prevalence is projected to decline from 11.8% in 2017 to 5.58% in 2037. A sustained 50% increase in antismoking advertising exposure from 2018 reduces projected prevalence in 2037 by 0.80 percentage points. Similar reductions are projected with the introduction of tobacco wholesaler and retailer licensing schemes that either permit or prohibit tobacco sales by alcohol-licensed venues (0.65 and 1.73 percentage points, respectively). Increasing the minimum age of legal supply of tobacco products substantially reduces adolescent initiation, but has minimal impact on smoking prevalence in the adult population over the simulation period. Sustained reductions in antismoking advertising exposure of 50% and 100% from 2018 increase projected adult daily smoking prevalence in 2037 by 0.88 and 1.98 percentage points, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:These results suggest that any prudent approach to endgame planning should seek to build on rather than replace existing tobacco control measures that have proved effective to date. Additional interventions that can promote cessation are expected to be more successful in reducing smoking prevalence than interventions focussing exclusively on preventing initiation.

译文

目标:使用与地方和国家利益相关者共同开发的系统动力学模型,调查几种烟草控制干预措施对澳大利亚昆士兰州成年人每日吸烟流行的潜在影响。

< strong>方法:对八个干预方案进行了模拟,并与参考方案(照常营业)进行了比较,在参考方案中,当前所有的烟草控制措施都保持不变,直到模拟期结束(2037年12月31日)。

发现:在一切照旧的情况下,成年人的每日吸烟率预计将从2017年的11.8%下降到2037年的5.58%。反吸烟广告的曝光率将持续增长50%从2018年开始,预计2037年的患病率将降低0.80个百分点。预计将通过引入烟草批发商和零售商许可计划来实现类似的减少,该计划允许或禁止在酒精许可的场所销售烟草(分别为0.65和1.73个百分点)。增加合法的烟草制品最低供应年龄可以大大减少青春期的萌生,但是在模拟期间对成年人口吸烟率的影响却很小。从2018年开始,持续减少50%和100%的反吸烟广告曝光量,预计2037年成人每日吸烟率分别增加0.88和1.98个百分点。

结论:这些结果表明,采取任何谨慎的残局计划方法,都应力求建立而不是取代迄今已证明有效的现有烟草控制措施。与专门专注于预防吸烟的干预措施相比,其他可以促进戒烟的干预措施在减少吸烟流行方面有望取得更大的成功。

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