The goals of tobacco control endgame strategies are specified in terms of the desired levels of tobacco use and/or tobacco related health consequences. Yet the strategies being considered may have other consequences beyond tobacco use prevalence, forms and related harms. Most of the proposed strategies threaten to create large black markets with potential attendant harms: corruption, high illegal earnings, violence and/or organised crime. Western societies of course have considerable experience with these problems in the context of prohibition of drugs such as cannabis, cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine. These experiences suggest that low prevalence has been achieved only by tough enforcement with damaging unintended consequences. Tobacco prohibition (total or partial) may not present the same trade-off but there is little basis for making a projection of the scale, form and harms of the attendant black markets. Nonetheless, these harms should not be ignored in analyses of the endgame proposals.

译文

:控烟最终策略的目标是根据所需的烟草使用水平和/或与烟草相关的健康后果指定的。然而,正在考虑的策略可能会带来除烟草使用流行率,形式和相关危害以外的其他后果。大多数提议的战略都威胁要建立具有潜在危害的大型黑市:腐败,高额非法收入,暴力和/或有组织犯罪。西方社会当然在禁止诸如大麻,可卡因,海洛因和甲基苯丙胺之类的毒品的背景下对这些问题有丰富的经验。这些经验表明,只有通过强行执行并破坏意想不到的后果,才能实现较低的患病率。禁止烟草(全部或部分禁止烟草)可能不会带来相同的权衡,但没有依据来预测随之而来的黑市的规模,形式和危害。但是,在分析残局建议时,不应忽略这些危害。

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