BACKGROUND:Declines in employment protection may have disproportionate effects on employment opportunities of workers with low education and poorer health. This study investigates the impact of changes in employment protection levels on employment rates according to education and health in 23 European countries. METHODS:Data were taken from the 4-year rotating panel European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions study. Employed participants aged 29-59 years (n = 334 999) were followed for 1 year over an 11-year period, from 2003 up to 2014. A logistic regression model with country and period fixed effects was used to estimate the association between changes in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) employment protection index and labour market outcomes, incorporating interaction terms with education and health. RESULTS:15 of the 23 countries saw their level of employment protection decline between 2003 and 2014. Reduced employment protection of temporary workers increased odds of early retirement (OR 6.29, 95% CI 3.17 to 12.48) and unemployment (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.76). Reduced employment protection of permanent workers increased odds of early retirement more among workers in poor health (OR 4.46, 95% CI 2.26 to 8.78) than among workers in good health (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.30 to 5.10). The impact of reduced employment protection of temporary workers on unemployment was stronger among lower-educated workers (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.90) than among higher-educated workers (OR 1.21, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.54). CONCLUSION:Reduced employment protection increased the odds of early exit from paid employment, especially among workers with lower education and poorer health. Employment protection laws may help reduce the employment disadvantage of workers with low education and poorer health.

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背景:就业保护的下降可能对教育程度低和健康状况较差的工人的就业机会产生不成比例的影响。这项研究调查了23个欧洲国家中根据教育和健康状况变化的就业保护水平对就业率的影响。
方法:数据取自为期4年的欧盟收入和生活状况统计旋转小组研究。从2003年到2014年,在11年期间对29-59岁(n = 334999)的受雇参与者进行了为期1年的随访。采用具有国家和期间固定影响的logistic回归模型来估算经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的就业保护指数和劳动力市场成果,并结合了教育和卫生方面的互动条件。
结果:23个国家中的15个国家在2003年至2014年之间的就业保护水平下降。临时工的就业保护减少,增加了提前退休的几率(OR为6.29,95%CI为3.17至12.48)和失业率(OR为1.37,95%CI) 1.07至1.76)。与健康状况良好的工人(OR 2.58,95%CI 1.30至5.10)相比,健康状况差的工人(OR 4.46,95%CI 2.26至8.78)减少了长期工人的就业保护,增加了提早退休的几率。受教育程度较低的临时工的就业保护对失业的影响(OR为1.47,95%CI为1.13至1.90)比受过高等教育的工人(OR 1.21,95%CI为0.95至1.54)更大。
结论:减少的就业保护增加了有偿就业的提前退出的可能性,尤其是在教育程度较低且健康状况较差的工人中。就业保护法可能有助于减少低学历和健康状况较差的工人的就业不利条件。

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