Kashmir musk deer Moschus cupreus (KMD) are the least studied species of musk deer. We compiled genetically validated occurrence records of KMD to construct species distribution models using Maximum Entropy. We show that the distribution of KMD is limited between central Nepal on the east and north-east Afghanistan on the west and is primarily determined by precipitation of driest quarter, annual mean temperature, water vapor, and precipitation during the coldest quarter. Precipitation being the most influential determinant of distribution suggests the importance of pre-monsoon moisture for growth of the dominant vegetation, Himalayan birch Betula utilis and Himalayan fir Abies spectabilis, in KMD's preferred forests. All four Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios result an expansion of suitable habitat in Uttarakhand, India, west Nepal and their associated areas in China in 2050s and 2070s but a dramatic loss of suitable habitat elsewhere (Kashmir region and Pakistan-Afghanistan border). About 1/4th of the current habitat will remain as climate refugia in future. Since the existing network of protected areas will only include a tiny fraction (4%) of the climatic refugia of KMD, the fate of the species will be determined by the interplay of more urgent short-term forces of poaching and habitat degradation and long-term forces of climate change.

译文

:克什米尔麝鹿Moschus cupreus(KMD)是麝香鹿研究最少的物种。我们汇编了经过遗传验证的KMD发生记录,以使用最大熵构建物种分布模型。我们表明,KMD的分布在东部的尼泊尔中部和西部的阿富汗东北部之间是有限的,并且主要由最干燥季度的降水,年平均温度,水蒸气和最冷季度的降水决定。降水是影响分布的最主要决定因素,表明季风前的湿度对于KMD首选森林中的主要植被喜马拉雅桦木桦和喜马拉雅冷杉的生长至关重要。所有这四个代表性的集中路径情景都导致2050年代和2070年代在印度北阿坎德邦,尼泊尔西部和其相关地区的合适栖息地得到扩展,但其他地方(克什米尔地区和巴基斯坦-阿富汗边境)的合适栖息地却急剧减少。将来,目前约有1/4的栖息地仍将作为气候避难所。由于现有的保护区网络仅占KMD气候避难所的一小部分(4%),因此物种的命运将取决于更紧急的短期偷猎和栖息地退化以及长期的,长期的,相互影响的相互作用。气候变化的长期力量。

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