Regulatory agencies and photochemical models of ozone rely on self-reported industrial emission rates of organic gases. Incorrect self-reported emissions can severely impact on air quality models and regulatory decisions. We compared self-reported emissions of organic gases in Houston, Texas, to measurements at a receptor site near the Houston ship channel, a major petrochemical complex. We analyzed hourly observations of total nonmethane organic carbon and 54 hydrocarbon compounds from C-2 to C-9 for the period June through November, 1993. We were able to demonstrate severe inconsistencies between reported emissions and major sources as derived from the data using a multivariate receptor model. The composition and the location of the sources as deduced from the data are not consistent with the reported industrial emissions. On the other hand, our observationally based methods did correctly identify the location and composition of a relatively small nearby chemical plant. This paper provides strong empirical evidence that regulatory agencies and photochemical models are making predictions based on inaccurate industrial emissions.

译文

:臭氧的管理机构和光化学模型依赖于自我报告的工业有机气体排放率。不正确的自我报告排放会严重影响空气质量模型和法规决策。我们将得克萨斯州休斯敦的自报有机气体排放量与主要石化综合体休斯敦船舶航道附近的接收站的测量结果进行了比较。我们分析了1993年6月至1993年11月从C-2到C-9的总非甲烷有机碳和54种碳氢化合物的小时观测值。多元受体模型。从数据推论出的源的组成和位置与所报告的工业排放量不一致。另一方面,我们的基于观测的方法确实能够正确识别附近相对较小的化工厂的位置和组成。本文提供了有力的经验证据,表明监管机构和光化学模型正在基于不准确的工业排放量做出预测。

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