BACKGROUND:Complex seasonal variations in abortions and seasonal trends have been reported worldwide, but there are no data from Australia. MATERIAL/METHODS:Hospital morbidity and birth data were modelled using time series and regression techniques to describe seasonal changes in births and abortions (1989-99) in NSW, Australia. Data were also analysed to determine demographic predictors of abortions. RESULTS:A higher proportion of births in NSW were recorded in March and September-October. Irrespective of the nuptiality the lowest seasonal indices were recorded in February and November. For married women aged 20-49 years, voluntary abortions were significantly higher in February (t=0.04) and significantly lower in April (t<0.001) and June (t=0.03) and non-voluntary abortions were significantly higher in February (t=0.002) and March (t=0.006). There was seasonality in voluntary abortions (F=4.3, p<0.001) and no seasonality in non-voluntary abortions (F=2.4, p=0.01) for never married women aged 20-49 years. As similar to married women, voluntary abortions among never married women were significantly higher in February (t<0.001) and significantly low in April (t=0.009). The lowest number of abortions were in April. Non-voluntary abortions occurred mostly in March for married women. The average number of voluntary abortions were significantly higher for never married women than for married women. CONCLUSIONS:There was a significant seasonality of births and abortions in NSW, Australia, with a peak of conceptions in December/January. Abortions were lowest in April and non-voluntary abortions were peaked in March. These data suggest that the human reproductive behaviour has a close relationship with environmental factors.

译文

背景:全球已有流产和季节趋势的复杂季节性变化报告,但澳大利亚没有相关数据。
材料/方法:使用时间序列和回归技术对医院发病率和出生数据进行建模,以描述澳大利亚新南威尔士州出生和流产的季节性变化(1989-99年)。还对数据进行分析以确定堕胎的人口统计学预测因素。
结果:3月和9月至10月在新南威尔士州出生的比例更高。不论婚宴如何,最低的季节性指数都记录在二月和十一月。对于年龄在20-49岁之间的已婚妇女,自愿流产在2月显着升高(t = 0.04),在4月显着降低(t <0.001)和6月(t = 0.03),非自愿流产在2月显着升高(t = 0.002)和三月(t = 0.006)。对于年龄在20-49岁之间的未婚女性,自愿流产有季节性(F = 4.3,p <0.001),非自愿流产没有季节性(F = 2.4,p = 0.01)。与已婚妇女类似,从未婚妇女中的自愿堕胎在2月显着增加(t <0.001),在4月显着降低(t = 0.009)。堕胎次数最少的是四月。非自愿堕胎主要发生在三月份的已婚妇女身上。未婚妇女的平均自愿堕胎次数明显多于已婚妇女。
结论:澳大利亚新南威尔士州有明显的出生和堕胎季节性,在12月/ 1月受孕高峰。流产在四月最低,非自愿流产在三月达到高峰。这些数据表明,人类的生殖行为与环境因素有着密切的关系。

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