The constancy of fertility levels in Ghana, Senegal and southwest Nigeria since 1970 is separated into its nuptiality and marital fertility elements. The age-specific changes in the two components are examined and these show that the apparent stability in observed total fertility rates is essentially the outcome of the offsetting impact of increased marital fertility below age 25 and above age 40, over the effect of the increasing proportion of women remaining single up to 25 yr of age. Continuity in traditional fertility behaviour and stable nuptiality has remained operative over the broad middle segment of the reproductive lifespan of women in the three areas. The paper thus concludes that West Africa is likely to continue to display stably high fertility for many years into the next century. The social and cultural conditions behind this trend are discussed with special reference to the continued high demand for children and the low and only slowly rising contraceptive prevalence level.

译文

:自1970年以来,加纳,塞内加尔和尼日利亚西南部的生育率处于恒定状态,分为其婚育性和婚姻生育率要素。研究了这两个组成部分的特定年龄变化,这些结果表明,观察到的总生育率的明显稳定性基本上是25岁以下和40岁以上婚姻生育率增加抵消的影响的结果,到25岁的单身女性。在这三个地区,妇女生育寿命的广泛中段一直保持着传统的生育行为和稳定的婚姻状态。因此,本文得出的结论是,到下个世纪,西非很可能会继续稳定地显示出高生育率。讨论了这种趋势背后的社会和文化条件,并特别提到了对儿童的持续高需求以及避孕普及率较低且仅在缓慢上升的情况。

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