This paper investigates a likelihood-based approach in meta-analysis of clinical trials involving the baseline risk as explanatory variable. The approach takes account of the errors affecting the measure of either the treatment effect or the baseline risk, while facing the potential misspecification of the baseline risk distribution. To this aim, we suggest to model the baseline risk through a flexible family of distributions represented by the skew-normal. We describe how to carry out inference within this framework and evaluate the performance of the approach through simulation. The method is compared with the routine likelihood approach based on the restrictive normality assumption for the baseline risk distribution and with the weighted least-squares regression. We apply the competing approaches to the analysis of two published datasets.

译文

本文研究了将基线风险作为解释变量的临床试验的荟萃分析中基于可能性的方法。该方法考虑了影响治疗效果或基线风险度量的误差,同时面临基线风险分布的潜在错误指定。为此,我们建议通过以偏斜正态为代表的灵活分布族对基线风险进行建模。我们描述了如何在此框架内进行推理并通过仿真评估该方法的性能。将该方法与基于基准风险分布的限制性正态性假设和加权最小二乘回归的常规似然方法进行比较。我们将竞争方法应用于两个已发布数据集的分析。

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