Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called "little ice ages," similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1, 000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

译文

尽管尚未完全了解气候变化的过程,但重要的因果关系是太阳能总产量的变化。各种气候代理数据中报告的周期显示出一种趋势,即模拟基本太阳周期长度 (11年) 乘以2(N) (其中N等于正整数或负整数) 的基本谐波序列。通过叠加振幅略有增加的基本谐波周期的级数,开发了一种简单的总太阳能输出变化的附加模型。该模型的时间线已校准为距今9,000年的更新世/全新世边界。将校准后的模型与全新世期间温暖或寒冷气候的地球物理,考古和历史证据进行了比较。世界范围内几个世纪的凉爽气候时期的证据称为 “小冰期”,类似于anno Domini (公元) 时期。1280 1860并大约每1,300年重复发生一次,与模拟太阳能输出的波动非常吻合。对过去1000年的气候敏感历史进行更详细的检查进一步支持了该模型。从模型到未来的推断表明,在接下来的几个世纪中,将逐渐冷却,并间歇性地进行较小的预热,并在接下来的500年内恢复到接近小冰期的条件。然后,从现在起大约1,500年后,可以恢复到类似于先前全新世最大值的高热条件。

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