Mortality is a well-recognized complication of Gram-negative bloodstream infection (BSI). The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict mortality in patients with Gram-negative BSI by using the Pitt bacteraemia score (PBS) and other clinical and laboratory variables. A cohort of 683 unique adult patients who were followed for at least 28 days after admission to Mayo Clinic Hospitals with Gram-negative BSI from 1 January 2001 to 31 October 2006 and who received clinically predefined appropriate empirical antimicrobial therapy was retrospectively identified. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for 28-day all-cause mortality. Regression coefficients from a multivariable model were used to develop a risk score to predict mortality following Gram-negative BSI. Malignancy (OR 3.48, 95% CI 1.94-6.22), liver cirrhosis (OR 5.42, 95% CI 2.52-11.65), source of BSI other than urinary tract or central venous catheter infection (OR 5.54, 95% CI 2.42-12.69), and PBS (OR 1.98, 95% CI 0.92-4.25 for PBS of 2-3 and OR 6.42, 95% CI 3.11-13.24 for PBS ≥4) were identified as independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with Gram-negative BSI. A risk-score model was created by adding points for each independent risk factor, and had a c-statistic of 0.84. Patients with risk scores of 0, 4, 8, 12 and 16 had estimated 28-day mortality rates of approximately 0%, 3%, 14%, 45%, and 81%, respectively. The Gram-negative BSI risk score described herein estimated mortality risk with high discrimination in patients with Gram-negative BSI who received clinically adequate empirical antimicrobial therapy.

译文

:死亡率是公认的革兰氏阴性血流感染(BSI)并发症。这项研究的目的是通过使用皮特菌血症评分(PBS)和其他临床和实验室变量,开发一种预测革兰氏阴性BSI患者死亡率的模型。回顾性分析了2001年1月1日至2006年10月31日在梅奥诊所医院接受革兰阴性BSI随访的至少28天的683名独特的成年患者,他们接受了临床上预先定义的适当的经验性抗菌治疗。多变量logistic回归用于确定28天全因死亡率的独立危险因素。来自多变量模型的回归系数用于建立风险评分,以预测革兰氏阴性BSI后的死亡率。恶性肿瘤(OR 3.48,95%CI 1.94-6.22),肝硬化(OR 5.42,95%CI 2.52-11.65),除尿路或中央静脉导管感染以外的BSI来源(OR 5.54,95%CI 2.42-12.69) ,并且将PBS(对于2-3的PBS,OR 1.98,95%CI 0.92-4.25,对于PBS≥4的OR 6.42,95%CI 3.11-13.24)被确定为Gram-28患者28天死亡率的独立危险因素。负BSI。通过为每个独立的风险因素加分来创建风险评分模型,并具有0.84的c统计量。风险评分为0、4、8、12和16的患者估计28天死亡率分别约为0%,3%,14%,45%和81%。本文所述的革兰氏阴性BSI风险评分估计了接受临床上足够的经验性抗微生物治疗的革兰氏阴性BSI患者的死亡率,并具有较高的判别力。

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