OBJECTIVE:To examine the analytic role of arsenic exposure on cancer mortality among the low-dose (well water arsenic level <150 μg/L) villages in the Blackfoot-disease (BFD) endemic area of southwest Taiwan and with respect to the southwest regional data. METHOD:Poisson analyses of the bladder and lung cancer deaths with respect to arsenic exposure (μg/kg/day) for the low-dose (<150 μg/L) villages with exposure defined by the village median, mean, or maximum and with or without regional data. RESULTS:Use of the village median well water arsenic level as the exposure metric introduced misclassification bias by including villages with levels >500 μg/L, but use of the village mean or the maximum did not. Poisson analyses using mean or maximum arsenic levels showed significant negative cancer slope factors for models of bladder cancers and of bladder and lung cancers combined. Inclusion of the southwest Taiwan regional data did not change the findings when the model contained an explanatory variable for non-arsenic differences. A positive slope could only be generated by including the comparison population as a separate data point with the assumption of zero arsenic exposure from drinking water and eliminating the variable for non-arsenic risk factors. CONCLUSION:The cancer rates are higher among the low-dose (<150 μg/L) villages in the BFD area than in the southwest Taiwan region. However, among the low-dose villages in the BFD area, cancer risks suggest a negative association with well water arsenic levels. Positive differences from regional data seem attributable to non-arsenic ecological factors.

译文

目的:探讨台湾西南部黑脚病(BFD)流行地区低剂量(井水砷水平<150μg/ L)村庄中砷暴露对癌症死亡率的分析作用数据。
方法:对低剂量(<150μg/ L)村庄的砷暴露量(μg/ kg /天)进行膀胱和肺癌死亡的泊松分析,暴露量由该村庄的中位数,均值或最大值定义或没有区域数据。
结果:使用村庄中井水砷中位数作为暴露指标,通过将水平> 500μg/ L的村庄包括在内,引入了分类错误,但是没有使用村庄平均值或最大值。使用平均砷含量或最大砷含量的泊松分析显示,对于膀胱癌以及膀胱癌和肺癌的模型,显着的负癌斜率因子。当模型包含非砷差异的解释变量时,包含台湾西南地区的数据并没有改变结果。只有将比较人群作为一个单独的数据点,并假设饮用水中砷的暴露量为零,并消除非砷危险因素的变量,才能产生正斜率。
结论:BFD地区低剂量(<150μg/ L)村庄的癌症发生率高于台湾西南地区。但是,在BFD地区的低剂量村庄中,癌症风险提示与井水砷水平呈负相关。与区域数据的正差异似乎归因于非砷生态因素。

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