BACKGROUND:Lung cancer has been the most common type of cancer in the world for several decades, and by 2008, there were approximately 1.61 million new cases, representing 12.7 % of all new cancers. It has been well known for many years that smoking causes lung cancer. Tobacco control measures have been regarded as the principal causes of the declines in smoking-related mortality, including mortality from lung cancer. METHODS:The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze the long-term trends in lung cancer incidence rates from 1983 to 2008 in urban Shanghai. In addition, this study estimates how many fewer cases of lung cancer have occurred in urban Shanghai because of tobacco control activities. RESULTS:The lung cancer incidence rate among males decreased slightly by 0.6 % [95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) -0.1 to 1.3 %] from 1983 to 1999 and then declined rapidly at a rate of 3.8 % (95 % CI 2.1-5.4 %). Among females, the cancer incidence rate decreased by 0.1 % (95 % CI -0.2 to 0.5 %) from 1983 to 2008. Overall, we estimated that approximately 2,711 cases of lung cancer were averted among urban men in Shanghai between 2000 and 2008 because of the reduction in tobacco smoking. CONCLUSION:The reduction in tobacco smoking is a major factor in the decrease in the incidence rate of lung cancer. Sustained progress in tobacco control is essential.

译文

背景:肺癌已经成为世界上最常见的癌症类型,几十年来,到2008年,大约有161万新病例,占所有新癌症的12.7%。多年以来众所周知,吸烟会导致肺癌。烟草控制措施被认为是与吸烟有关的死亡率(包括肺癌死亡率)下降的主要原因。
方法:采用Joinpoint回归程序分析上海市区1983年至2008年肺癌发病率的长期趋势。此外,这项研究估计,由于控烟活动,上海城市发生肺癌的病例减少了。
结果:从1983年到1999年,男性肺癌的发病率略微下降了0.6%[95%置信区间(95%CI)-0.1至1.3%],然后迅速下降了3.8%(95%CI 2.1- 5.4%)。在女性中,从1983年到2008年,癌症的发病率下降了0.1%(95%CI -0.2降至0.5%)。总体而言,我们估计,在2000年至2008年之间,上海城市男性避免了约2,711例肺癌病例,原因是减少吸烟。
结论:吸烟减少是肺癌发生率降低的主要因素。烟草控制方面的持续进步至关重要。

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