BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Exacerbation(s) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) entail important events describing an acute deterioration of respiratory symptoms. Changes in medication and/or hospitalization are needed to gain control over the event. However, an exacerbation leading to hospitalization is associated with a worse prognosis for the patient. The objective of this study is to explore factors that could predict the probability of an eCOPD-related hospitalization.
METHODS:Data from 128 patients with COPD included in a prospective, longitudinal study were used. At baseline, physical, emotional, and social status of the patients were assessed. Moreover, hospital admission during a one year follow-up was captured. Different models were made based on univariate analysis, literature, and practice. These models were combined to come to one final overall prediction model.
RESULTS:During follow-up, 31 (24.2%) participants were admitted for eCOPD. The overall model contained six significant variables: currently smoking (OR = 3.93), forced vital capacity (FVC; OR = 0.97), timed-up-and-go time (TUG-time) (OR = 14.16), knowledge (COPD knowledge questionnaire, percentage correctly answered questions (CIROPD%correct)) (<60% (OR = 1.00); 60%-75%: (OR = 0.30); >75%: (OR = 1.94), eCOPD history (OR = 9.98), and care dependency scale (CDS) total score (OR = 1.12). This model was well calibrated (goodness-of-fit test: p = 0.91) and correctly classified 79.7% of the patients.
CONCLUSION:A combination of TUG-time, eCOPD-related admission(s) prior to baseline, currently smoking, FVC, CDS total score, and CIROPD%correct allows clinicians to predict the probability of an eCOPD-related hospitalization.
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【Physical, Psychological, and Social Factors Associated with Exacerbation-Related Hospitalization in Patients with COPD.].
【与COPD患者病情加重相关的住院治疗相关的身体，心理和社会因素。】
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DOI：10.3390/jcm9030636文章类型：杂志文章
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背景与目的：慢性阻塞性肺疾病（eCOPD）的恶化会引起描述呼吸道症状急性恶化的重要事件。需要改变用药和/或住院治疗以控制事件。然而，导致住院的恶化与患者预后较差有关。这项研究的目的是探讨可以预测eCOPD相关住院的可能性的因素。
方法：采用一项前瞻性，纵向研究中的128例COPD患者的数据。在基线时，评估患者的身体，情绪和社会状况。此外，在一年的随访期间还记录了入院情况。基于单变量分析，文献和实践建立了不同的模型。将这些模型组合起来，得出一个最终的整体预测模型。
结果：在随访期间，有31名（24.2％）参与者被录入了eCOPD。总体模型包含六个重要变量：当前吸烟（OR = 3.93），强制肺活量（FVC； OR = 0.97），定时走走时间（TUG时间）（OR = 14.16），知识（COPD知识）问卷，正确回答问题的百分比（CIROPD％正确））（<60％（OR = 1.00）; 60％-75％：（OR = 0.30）;> 75％：（OR = 1.94），eCOPD历史记录（OR = 9.98） ）和护理依赖性量表（CDS）的总评分（OR = 1.12），该模型已经过很好的校准（拟合优度检验：p = 0.91），并正确分类了79.7％的患者。
结论：TUG时间，基线之前的eCOPD相关入院，当前吸烟，FVC，CDS总分和CIROPD％correct的组合使临床医生可以预测eCOPD相关住院的可能性。
方法：采用一项前瞻性，纵向研究中的128例COPD患者的数据。在基线时，评估患者的身体，情绪和社会状况。此外，在一年的随访期间还记录了入院情况。基于单变量分析，文献和实践建立了不同的模型。将这些模型组合起来，得出一个最终的整体预测模型。
结果：在随访期间，有31名（24.2％）参与者被录入了eCOPD。总体模型包含六个重要变量：当前吸烟（OR = 3.93），强制肺活量（FVC； OR = 0.97），定时走走时间（TUG时间）（OR = 14.16），知识（COPD知识）问卷，正确回答问题的百分比（CIROPD％正确））（<60％（OR = 1.00）; 60％-75％：（OR = 0.30）;> 75％：（OR = 1.94），eCOPD历史记录（OR = 9.98） ）和护理依赖性量表（CDS）的总评分（OR = 1.12），该模型已经过很好的校准（拟合优度检验：p = 0.91），并正确分类了79.7％的患者。
结论：TUG时间，基线之前的eCOPD相关入院，当前吸烟，FVC，CDS总分和CIROPD％correct的组合使临床医生可以预测eCOPD相关住院的可能性。
