Estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence are important, because they are the primary measure of the current state of the epidemic in a country. How estimates of HIV/AIDS are made depends on the level of the epidemic. For estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence in low-level and concentrated epidemics it is necessary to disaggregate the total adult population into sub-groups based on the relative risk of infection. For each group, the major issues and questions are: identifying risk groups, estimating the size of the populations, and estimating HIV prevalence in these groups. The greatest difficulty in making estimates of prevalence in low-level and concentrated epidemics is often establishing the size of various populations. Because of the uncertainty inherent in making an estimate of population size for these groups at high risk, low and high estimates are used. In order to demonstrate the method the case of Honduras was used. The most recent HIV prevalence data and the estimates of population sizes were applied. It was estimated that Honduras, which has a total population of 6,575,000 (United Nations Population Division sources), has approximately 55,000 adults living with HIV/AIDS, with a range of uncertainty between 30,000 and 80,000. Estimations of the burden of HIV is a continuous process and should be updated on a regular basis according to the most recent and relevant information available.

译文

:艾滋病毒/艾滋病患病率的估计很重要,因为它们是衡量一个国家当前流行状况的主要指标。如何估计艾滋病毒/艾滋病取决于流行程度。为了估计低水平和集中流行中的HIV / AIDS患病率,有必要根据感染的相对风险将总成年人口分类为亚组。对于每个组,主要问题和问题是:确定风险组,估计人口规模,并估计这些组中的HIV患病率。对低水平和集中流行的流行率进行估计的最大困难通常是确定各种人群的规模。由于对这些高危人群的人口规模进行估算时存在固有的不确定性,因此使用了低估和高估。为了演示该方法,使用了洪都拉​​斯的情况。应用了最新的艾滋病毒流行率数据和人口规模估计数。据估计,洪都拉斯总人口657.5万(联合国人口司消息来源),大约有55,000名艾滋病毒/艾滋病感染者,其不确定性在30,000至80,000之间。艾滋病毒负担的估算是一个连续的过程,应根据可获得的最新和相关信息定期进行更新。

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